Happy New Year to all my readers. Here’s hoping the Sky
Blues’ recent form continues into 2013 and that the skies over Coventry are
brighter than in the last few years.
Before Christmas I commented on City’s amazing away form and
that continued over the Christmas programme and City have now won six
consecutive away league games – smashing the four game record run set in 1963
and equalled in 1992 and 2004. The wins over Stevenage and MK Dons were
especially satisfying in that in both games the team came from behind to win –
for the first time in away games since September 2009 at Watford. That night
City won 3-2 thanks to a late Leon Best goal. At Milton Keynes they twice came
from behind to win – something unheard of since an opening day Premiership
victory over Chelsea in 1997!
The away form is a fitting reward to the Sky Blue Army who
follow City away and have had to put up with some dire away form in the last
three seasons. City’s away followings are 40% higher this season with an
average of over 1200 following the massive turnout of 4,988 at MK – the highest
away league following since the Villa Park funeral in 2001. Before this season the long-suffering Sky
Blue Army had seen just 16 away league wins in four seasons (92 games) and to
date this season they have witnessed seven wins out of 13 plus two cup wins and
seen just one defeat (at Brentford) since Mark Robins arrived in October.
Sadly the home form still gives cause for concern and
Shrewsbury provided the banana skin on New Years Day, completing an unlikely
double with their first away win of the season and their first ever victory in
Coventry not to mention ending a 10-game unbeaten run – the best by a City side
for ten years. The Shrews had previously drawn four and lost eight of their
games at Highfield Road, including a 8-1 hammering in October 1963 – the last
time City scored more than six in a league game. City’s home league form is
very poor with only three wins in 13 games and a big improvement will be
necessary if a serious play-off challenge is going to be made.
Another record went west on New Years Day; the Sky Blues had
scored in 24 consecutive league and cup games and were heading for the club
record of 29 set in the 1966-67 promotion season. The run was however the
second best of all-time.
People have been asking if promotion is a realistic option
this season and I have looked at the last ten season’s statistics for League
One. To finish in the top two automatic places has historically required 83 or
more points. On two occasions in those ten years the second placed team
required less (77 in 2005-06 and 80 in 2004-05) but last season, in a steel
city scramble, Sheffield Wednesday needed 91 to pip the Blades into second
place. To reach 85 points say, City would require 48 points from their
remaining 20 games or 15 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. That, to me, sounds a
tall order. A more realistic challenge would be for a top six place to go into
the play-offs. In the last ten years 71 points has been sufficient to get sixth
place on four occasions but in 2003 you needed 81 points and in 2010 80 points.
The average to clinch a top six place seems to be around 75 points and City
would need a further 38 points from 20 games or 11 wins and five draws. A top
six place would require a mammoth effort from Mark Robins’ team.
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