Sunday 13 March 2016

Jim's column 12.3.2016


Two more defeats in the last seven days have made Coventry City's task of reaching the League One play-offs this season extremely difficult. After the Bury game last month City looked to be back on track following their January 'blip' with a play-off place definitely achievable. Since then four defeats in a row have punctured the dreams of City's fans who were hoping to see their team reach the play-offs for the first time in their history. The blip has now become a slump.

Over the past five seasons it has typically required 73 or 74 points to get into the League One play-offs, although last season Chesterfield finished sixth with 69 points. If we assume 73 points would be necessary for City to finish in the top six then a further 21 points is required, from the remaining 11 games (including today's game at Blackpool). That equates to seven victories or six victories and three draws. On current form that looks a tall order and only a swift return to the form of last autumn will suffice. In October and November City racked up 23 points from 11 games (six wins and five draws) with their dazzling football. That is the form that is now required.

The defeat at Shrewsbury made it four losses in a row and the team's worst run since the miserable days of 2012 just after they were relegated to League One. Following manager Andy Thorn's departure following a 2-2 home draw with Bury in August, Richard Shaw took over as caretaker manager, assisted by Lee Carsley. Shaw's team knocked Birmingham City in the League Cup but then lost four league games in a row:

Crewe (a) 0-1
Stevenage (h) 1-2
Tranmere (a) 0-2
Shrewsbury (a) 1-4

Mark Robins took over and lost his first game in charge (at the Emirates to Arsenal in the League Cup) and then lost his first league game (1-2 at home to Carlisle) to make it five consecutive league defeats.

Shrewsbury featured in that run as well as the current run and City have a woeful record in that town. In fifteen league visits the Sky Blues have won just once, at Easter 1958 when they turned around a 1-0 half-time deficit to win 3-1 with goals from Ray Straw (2) and Peter Hill.

Following last week's home defeat to Rochdale Keith Ballantyne wrote to me about City's record against Lancashire clubs in recent seasons. He wrote:

'the successive home defeats to Fleetwood and Rochdale (a 'City hoodoo' club in their own right if my memory serves me correctly?), plus Oldham's late equaliser at home last year and not to mention the legendary curse of Deepdale, the 6-0 thumping of Bury and the earlier wins against Wigan and Fleetwood aside, do you think there is any evidence to support a theory that City don't always do too well against sides from west of the Pennines ?


Keith is spot on about the Preston curse – City have never won at Deepdale in a league game. Rochdale too have become a 'hoodoo' club for the Sky Blues. For the second season running City have failed to beat a club who struggle to get 3,000 for home games and in 13 league and cup meetings with 'Dale' City have a solitary League Cup victory to their name. Oldham also have been a thorn in City's side over the last four seasons and City have managed to win only two of seven meetings.

I thought it worthwhile looking at the stats over the last four seasons (since we were relegated from the Championship). I have included teams from Greater Manchester (Wigan, Bury & Rochdale) and Merseyside (Tranmere) in my analysis and the results don't make pleasant reading.

At home the record against what Keith describes as 'Lancashire Laddies' is pretty poor with only four wins from 17 games, two of which were in 2012-13 and the other two this season (Bury 6-0 and Wigan 2-0), and nine draws. Away from home the Sky Blues have played 14 and won four, drawn four and lost six but apart from the two victories at Fleetwood have not won in eight trips north. The win ratio over Lancs' clubs over the period is only 25% compared to an overall win ratio of 36%. The statistics do seem to support Keith's theory about clubs from west of the Pennines. Let's hope City's form changes today at the Lancashire seaside at a ground no Coventry City side has won at since 1923.

Home
Away


Played
W
D
L
W
D
L
Pts
2012-13
8
2
2
0
2
1
1
15
2013-14
6
0
2
1
0
2
1
4
2014-15
8
0
3
1
1
0
3
6
2015-16
9
2
2
2
1
1
1
12
Totals
31
4
9
4
4
4
6
37

Coventry City's record against 'Lancashire' clubs in League One.

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